Quantitative Decision Making

Course Perspective

This course covers concepts and tools that aid managerial decision making by applying scientific approach and computer software to managerial problems that involve quantitative factors. Modeling of such operational situations is emphasized through cases and spreadsheet exercises..

GOALS FOR THE COURSE

SKILL-SPECIFIC GOALS

  • You will become familiar with terminology, basic tools and concepts of management science and statistical decision making, as well as the current software in the area, to be able to communicate with analysts and other experts in the field.
  • You will become proficient in techniques of analyzing real-world operational situations using spreadsheet software.
  • You will develop an understanding of how to interpret the results of the quantitative and computational analysis of a decision problem, utilizing statistical, optimization, and simulation approaches.
  • You will be able to construct and analyze decision trees for business decision making. IS 601 spring 2004.

CONTENT-SPECIFIC GOALS

  • You will gain an appreciation for the relevance and power of quantitative tools for managerial decision making.
  • You will develop an understanding of what decision technologies can and cannot do in support of decision making in business.
  • This course also aims to help you further refine your analytical thinking skills.

Prerequisite(s): Basic Knowledge of Mathematics and Statistics

Recommended Text Books:

S.No. Title Author(s) Assigned Code
1 Statistics for Management

 

Richard I.Levin, David S. Rubin Book 1
2 Introduction to Statistical theory Part-I & II Prof.M.Sher & Dr. S.Kamal Book 2
3 Quantitative Analysis for Management 6th Edition

prentice-Hall International,Inc.

Render, B. & R.M. Stair Book 3
4 Modern Mathematics with application to business and the Social Sciences. (4th Edition, National Book Foundation,PAK Wheeler, E.R. & Peeples W.D. Book-4

Tentative Teaching Schedule

Course Schedule
Week Module Intended Learning Outcomes
    At the end of this week, the students will be able to explain:
1 Quantitative Analysis for Management

(Chap#1) Book-3

 

· Introduction to quantitative Techniques

· Role of quantitative techniques in business decisions and different fields of life.

2 Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion in Frequency Distributions

(Chap #3) Book-1

·         Introduction to Measure of Central Tendency.

·         Calculation of Arithmetic Mean, Geometric Mean and Harmonic mean and discuss their properties.

·         Calculation of Median and Mode and discuss their properties

·         Calculation of Quintiles and their interpretations.

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

3 Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion in Frequency Distributions

(Chap #3) Book-1

·         Introduction to Measures of Dispersion.

·     Mean Deviation and its coefficients

·     Variance, Standard deviation and their properties.

·     Chebyshev inequality and its application.

·         Coefficient of Variation, Moments, Skewness and Kurtosis.

(ASSIGNMETN+QUIZES)

4 Probability-I: Introductory Ideas

(Chap # 4) Book-1

·         Introduction to Probability and Basic terminologies.

·         Axioms of Probability, Rules of counting.

Addition and Multiplication Laws of probability and their application in different field of life, especially in business phenomena.

5 Probability Distributions

(Chap # 5) Book-1

·     Conditional Probability, discrete and continuous random variables

·     Mathematical expectation and its properties.

·         Marginal and Conditional distributions.

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

6 Probability Distributions

(Chap # 5) Book-1

·    Introduction to Discrete Probability distributions.

·     Binomial distributions and its applications in different field of life, especially in business phenomena.

·         Fitting of the Binomial distribution.

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

 

7 Probability Distributions

(Chap # 5) Book-1

·     Introduction to Poison distribution

·     Poison distribution and its application in different field of life, especially in business phenomena.

·     Fitting of the Poison distribution.

 

(ASSIGNMETN+QUIZES)

8 Probability Distributions

(Chap # 5) Book-1

·      Introduction to Continuous Probability   distribution, Normal distribution

·       Normal distribution and its application in different field of life, especially in business phenomena.

·          Fitting of the normal distribution.

 

(ASSIGNMETN+QUIZES)

Mid-semester Examination

 

9 Testing  of Hypotheses: One Sample Tests

(Chap # 8) Book-1

·         Introduction and Basic Concepts of Statistical Inference.

·         Null and Alternative hypothesis, Significance level, Test Statistics, Acceptance and Rejection Regions, P-value,  Directional and Non directional test.

 

10 Testing  of Hypotheses: One Sample Tests and Two Sample Tests

(Chap # 8 & 9) Book-1

·      Testing of Hypothesis and interval estimation concerning population mean.(Z & t-test)

·      Testing of hypothesis and C.I about difference    between two means. (Z & t-test)

·          Testing of Hypothesis and C.I for population proportion.

 

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

11 Simple Regression  and Correlation

(Chap # 12) Book-1

·          Functional relationship among Variables, Exact and Statistical relations among variables, Scatter Diagram.

·          Estimation and Interpretation in simple linear regression.

·          Properties of SLR line, Prediction in SLR,

Coefficient of Determination.

·          Testing of Hypotheses about regression coefficients

 

(ASSINGNMENT+QUIZES)

12 Simple Regression  and Correlation

(Chap # 12) Book-1

·         Introduction to Correlation.

·         Calculation and interpretation of Simple Linear Correlation.

·         Testing of Hypothesis concerning Population correlation coefficient

·         (ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

13 Multiple Regression and Modeling

(Chap # 13) Book-1

·         Multiple Linear regression, Estimation and interpretation in MLR. Prediction in MLR, Coefficient of Determination in MLR.

·         Introduction to Polynomial Regression.

 

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

 

14 Quantitative Analysis for Management

By

Barry & Render. (Book-3)

Linear Programming (LP)

·       Construction of Linear Programming

·       Graphical solution for Linear programming

15 Quantitative Analysis for Management

By

Barry & Render. (Book-3)

Problems with Linear Programming

·       No feasible solution

·       Unbounded solution

·       Alternative Optimum

·       Redundant constraint

Simplex Method

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

16 Modern Mathematics

By

Wheeler & Peeples. (Book-4)

  • Maxima and Minima of a Function
  • Revenue, Cost and Profit Function

(ASSIGNMENT+QUIZES)

End-semester examination

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